CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2015-06-21T02:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2015-06-21T02:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/8736/-1
CME Note: From near disk center, AR 12371. Associated with M-class flares.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-22T17:59Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0
Dst min. in nT: -195
Dst min. time: 2015-06-23T05:00Z
Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-06-22T17:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2015 Jun 21 1019 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A full halo CME is detected with first appearance in SoHO/LASCO C2 images at 2:36UT. It is associated with the double M2 flare from Catania group 92 (NOAA region 2371) located just east off the central meridian (about -13 degrees at the time of the event) peaking at M2.0 level at 01:42UT and M2.6 level at 02:35 UT. A corresponding dimming is visible in SDO/AIA imagery. The halo is fairly symmetric with principle direction only slightly northeast. Measured projected speeds are around 1000-1300 km/s. This CME is definitely earthbound and may interact with the June 19 CME. A combined arrival of those is expected from June 22 afternoon onwards. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# :Issued: 2015 Jun 21 1230 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 50621 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Jun 2015, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 21 Jun 2015 until 23 Jun 2015) SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given) PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jun 2015 10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 027 PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jun 2015 10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 071 PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Jun 2015 10CM FLUX: 131 / AP: 063 COMMENT: Solar flaring activity was moderate with an M4.0 flare from Catania group 87 (NOAA region 2367) peaking at 9:44 UT and a double M2 flare from Catania group 92 (NOAA region 2371). The latter peaked at M2.0 level at 1:42UT and at M2.6 level at 2:35UT. It was associated with a dimming and a corresponding full halo was observed in SoHO/LASCO images. Solar flaring at M level is likely over the next days by both regions on disk, which are now on or approaching the western hemisphere. The 10 MeV proton flux was at decline towards background levels but stabilized around 18:00UT at slightly elevated levels of around 0.7 pfu. Since 2:00UT the level is gently rising again to current levels of 2-3 pfu. This is likely to increase further and a warning condition is issued for the coming days. The full halo CME associated to the double peaked M2 flare from Catania group 92 (NOAA region 2371) located just east off the central meridian (about -13 degrees at the time of the event), has its first appearance in SoHO/LASCO C2 images at 2:36UT. The halo is fairly symmetric with principle direction only slightly northeast (CACTUS software erroneously interpreted the event as three separate events with limited angular extent). Measured projected speeds are around 1000-1300 km/s. This CME is definitely earthbound and may interact with the June 19 CME. A combined arrival of those is expected from June 22 afternoon onwards. Solar wind is still at nominal levels with the speed and total magnetic field dropping further to low values of 280 km/s and 2nT respectively. Bz was variable in the +-1.5 nT range. Corresponding quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were recorded (NOAA Kp 0-1, local K Dourbes 0-3). Solar wind conditions are expected to become perturbed later today by a glancing blow from the June 18 CME, followed by the arrival of another glancing blow from the June 19 CME and the arrival of the June 21 CME from the afternoon of June 22 onwards. Minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may occur later today and tomorrow with possibly major to severe storms late June 22 and June 23 associated to the arrival of the June 21 CME. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 046, BASED ON 10 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 20 Jun 2015 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 135 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 006 AK WINGST : 002 ESTIMATED AP : 003 ESTIMATED ISN : 048, BASED ON 20 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 21 0102 0142 0200 N12E13 M2.0 1N 100 92/2371 VI/2 21 0938 0944 0950 ////// M3.8 120 /////// END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#Lead Time: 31.55 hour(s)
Difference: 0.98 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-06-21T10:26Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement